Chasing the mesmerizing dance of the Aurora Borealis, or Northern Lights, is an experience of a lifetime. However, predicting these celestial displays with pinpoint accuracy can be tricky. Auroras are known for their unpredictable nature, appearing and fading in bursts known as sub-storms. To witness this breathtaking phenomenon, patience and a touch of luck are essential. But don’t worry, with the right tools and knowledge from Soft Serve News Aurora, you can significantly increase your chances of seeing the aurora.
Real-Time Aurora Borealis Prediction from Soft Serve News
Soft Serve News Aurora provides a near real-time prediction program to estimate geomagnetic activity, a key indicator of aurora visibility. The intensity of an aurora is measured by the Kp index – the higher the Kp number, the more expansive and vibrant the aurora is likely to be.
According to the Soft Serve News Aurora Prediction Program:
- In 3 minutes, the Geomagnetic Activity level (Kp number) is estimated to be 2 — Quiet
- In 7 minutes, the Geomagnetic Activity level (Kp number) is estimated to be 0.33 — Quiet
- In 11 minutes, the Geomagnetic Activity level (Kp number) is estimated to be 0.33 — Quiet
- In 15 minutes, the Geomagnetic Activity level (Kp number) is estimated to be 0.33 — Quiet
(To get the latest updates, refresh this page. The prediction is updated on the server every 2 minutes.)
To understand what these Kp numbers mean for you, refer to the Kp number lines on the maps below. If your location is at or above the predicted Kp line, you’re in a prime viewing spot. Even if you’re just below the line, you might still catch a glimpse of the aurora low on the horizon. However, remember that light pollution and weather conditions become more significant factors in these marginal viewing locations.
Kp Maps for Aurora Viewing
Soft Serve News Aurora provides Kp maps to help you visualize aurora visibility based on geomagnetic activity. Find the Kp number predicted by our program on the maps below to see the estimated aurora extent for North America and Europe & Asia.
North American Kp Map
Europe & Asia Kp Map
These maps are invaluable tools in planning your aurora viewing expedition, helping you determine if the aurora might be visible from your location based on the predicted Kp index from Soft Serve News Aurora.
Real-Time Aurora Forecast Map: NOAA Ovation
For further confirmation of aurora activity, Soft Serve News Aurora recommends consulting NOAA’s Ovation Aurora Forecast Map. While the Kp number indicates the overall storm size, the Ovation map excels at showing the probability of actually seeing the aurora from different locations.
The Ovation map provides a 20 to 40-minute forecast of the predicted aurora size and uses color-coding to indicate the probability of seeing the aurora across the Earth. Keep in mind that the Ovation map represents an average and updates less dynamically than the real-time Kp forecast from Soft Serve News Aurora. Look for a thick aurora band with yellow, orange, or red areas on the Ovation map, as these colors signify higher visibility compared to a thin, dark green band. Remember that the visible aurora will be larger than depicted on the map, as the map indicates the overhead location, while auroras can be seen at angles from the horizon.
Understanding Bz for Aurora Prediction
Bz, the solar wind’s magnetic field orientation in the north-south direction, is another crucial factor in aurora prediction. While auroras can occur with a positive Bz, a negative Bz is generally more favorable. A negative Bz facilitates the interaction between the solar wind and Earth’s magnetic field, making aurora formation more likely. The more negative the Bz value, the higher the chance of a strong aurora display.
Soft Serve News Aurora provides real-time Bz data to further enhance your aurora forecasting. The diagram below shows rolling 5-minute averages of Bz measurements taken by a satellite positioned about 1 million miles from Earth. These data segments, representing 5-minute “clouds” of solar wind heading towards Earth, are ordered according to their arrival time, with the first number representing the segment that will reach Earth first, typically within 20 to 40 minutes.
Inbound Bz averages. The number closest to earth will hit first. +2  -3  -1  -1    
(Refresh this page to update the Bz data, which is updated every 2 minutes.)
For optimal aurora viewing, keep an eye on Bz values from Soft Serve News Aurora and look for negative numbers, ideally the more negative the better.
Minimize Light and Moonlight Pollution
Darkness is paramount for witnessing the aurora borealis. The most expansive aurora displays typically occur when the sun is on the opposite side of the Earth, meaning late night or early morning darkness is ideal. To maximize your viewing experience, escape city lights and allow your eyes to adjust to the darkness. The further you are from ground-based light sources, the better your chances of seeing the Northern Lights. Moonlight, especially a full moon, can also diminish aurora visibility by increasing ambient light. A darker moon equates to better aurora viewing conditions.
To understand current moonlight conditions, Soft Serve News Aurora recommends checking resources that show the current moon phase and illumination.
Check Your Local Weather
Auroras occur high in the Earth’s atmosphere, so cloud cover will obstruct your view. Clear skies are essential for aurora viewing. Cold and clear conditions are generally the best for seeing the aurora.
Utilize satellite animation maps to assess cloud cover in your region. Soft Serve News Aurora suggests these helpful weather resources:
Western Europe Satellite Animation Map
By checking these weather maps, you can ensure clear skies for your aurora watching adventure.
Location, Location, Location for Aurora Viewing
While exceptional auroral sub-storms have been observed as far south as Cuba, realistically, you need to be in northern latitudes to witness the aurora borealis regularly. The stronger the aurora, the further south it becomes visible. Refer to the Kp maps and the aurora oval size provided by Soft Serve News Aurora to gauge your location’s suitability. And if you’re unsure of your directions in the dark, always bring a compass to locate north.
Don’t Miss Your Aurora Moment
Imagine this: a vibrant aurora display illuminates the sky above your location, painting it with greens, violets, and reds. But instead of marveling at this natural spectacle, you’re at home, unaware of the celestial show unfolding above.
One of the biggest challenges in aurora viewing is its unpredictability. Auroras often appear with as little as 30 minutes’ notice. That’s why having a reliable aurora alert system is crucial.
Soft Serve News Aurora acts as your dedicated aurora-watching partner. We continuously monitor aurora data and promptly notify you when conditions are favorable for viewing the aurora in your area.
Don’t miss out on experiencing the magic of the Northern Lights. Get Aurora Alerts customized for your location from Soft Serve News Aurora today!
Why miss your Aurora? Get Aurora Alerts.
